What’s the state of China’s economic recovery?

Editor’s Note: What is the state of China’s economic recovery post-pandemic? Do the economic numbers reflect the challenges and opportunities on the ground? In this episode of Reality Check with Wang Guan, CGTN anchor Wang Guan breaks down some key economic data, and discusses the prospects of the world’s second largest economy with World Bank’s China Director Martin Raser and Chief Economist  of Asia Pacific at Vanguard Strategy Group Wang Qian.

Official surveys show that 99 percent of China’s large industries and 84 percent of small and medium-sized enterprises had reopened by mid-April. Industrial production, a major gauge of factory activity, grew by 3.9 percent from a year earlier, recovering from a recent drop. That growth rate, by the way, is twice as fast as most economists expected.

Another measure of economic activity is investment. In April, China’s investment in fixed-assets such as machinery and land rose, so did property investment and infrastructure investment, though all are still below pre-pandemic levels. There is a slower recovery on the demand side.

In April, retail sales, a gauge of consumer spending, fell by 7.5 percent year on year. Overseas demand has also been weak as many countries are still battling the coronavirus.

In other words, Chinese factories are churning out clothes, toys and electronics faster than consumers in China or overseas want to buy them. Given the uncertainties abroad, many are looking to China’s parliamentary “Two Sessions” to provide more fiscal measures to stimulate domestic consumption.

Another concern is jobs. The official urban unemployment number in April is six percent, slightly higher than 5.9 percent in March. But as you will soon hear from economists, this number may not include everyone who’s out of work.

A silver lining of this pandemic is the expansion of China’s digital economy, with online sales, teleconferencing and online entertainment thriving amid social distancing orders.

Before COVID-19, China was already a digital leader – accounting for 45 percent of global e-commerce transactions. After COVID-19, bricks and mortar retail sales plummeted but online sales rose three percent in the first two months of 2020.

Company communication platform DingTalk doubled its monthly active users in a single quarter to 17 million. Leading this wave of digitization are China’s private firms.

At the height of COVID-19, Alipay and WeChat supported the Shanghai government’s “Suishenma” health QR code launch to help contain the spread of the virus.

Now back to the big question, what must China do to sustain its economic recovery? How can it balance reopening the economy and preventing a second wave of the outbreak? 

World Bank’s China Director Martin Raser and Chief Economist  of Asia Pacific at Vanguard Strategy Group Wang Qian share their views with CGTN.

Wang Guan: How do you look at China’s economic recovery so far? What will its growth look like in 2020?

Wang Qian: I would say, what you gonna see the interesting phenomena is that even though over 90 percent of the factories, shops, restaurants has already been reopened, but they are likely to operate at a much lower level because of the demand shock.To that extent, we are not expecting a very sharp, quick rebound in second quarter. In our forecast, we are looking for the economic growth after the 6.8 percent decline in the first quarter to still record a modest contraction in the second quarter, essentially flat.

And then it will be only in the second half that you start to see more meaningful recovery of the Chinese economy. One, the global economy will recover from the recession and two we will be expecting more stimulus, especially on the fiscal side, to kick in to boost up the domestic demand.

But I think the good news is that China will still be the first one to recover from this whole coronavirus thing relative to the rest of the world.

If you think about the Chinese economy, the composition, it’s less exposed to face to face intensive service sectors compared to developing economies like U.S. or Europe. So manufacturing construction is still a big share of the Chinese economy. So the demand shock actually will affect U.S. or Europe economies much more compared to China.

Relatively speaking, I would say China will get back to the pre-crisis level in terms of economic activity much quicker. So by the end of this year, we should be seeing Chinese economy get back to normal already. Well, if you talk about U.S. or European economies, they are probably only coming back to normal by the end of 2021,

Wang Guan: What further stimulus can be expected from China’s Two Sessions and your opinion on China’s policy priorities right now?

Wang Qian: Before the coronavirus, everybody was talking about five percent to six percent growth target. But I think we probably should have a much lower growth target this year. That would increase the tolerance for slower economic growth because I think the policy here is trying to cushion the downturn instead of over -stimulating the economy.

Because I think the positive experience has already shown that it’s probably too costly to over-stimulate, especially over-reliant on the monetary policy front.

Wang Guan: How important is consumer spending when it comes to the role of consumption in boosting the Chinese economy? Do you think it is becoming even more important as external demand weakens?

Wang Qian: When you look at the U.S. economy, for example, you do see that household, private consumption is about 70 percent of the overall economy. But in China, when we think about the household consumption is actually probably less than 40 percent of the economy.

So I think there is a lot of potential for China to boost up consumption in the long term. And I think this is where we see the future of Chinese economy. You have to rebalance the economy away from exports, away from investment towards domestic consumption.

That’s where I think it’s about the long term goal of growth rebalancing. In the near term, I would say, relatively speaking, consumption is less volatile, is more stable compared to other components of the economy, such as investment or exports.

Wang Guan: China’s March urban unemployment rate is 5.9 percent. How do you interpret this official number? What needs to be done to address the issue of unemployment?

Wang Qian: Actually it is still underestimate the pressure in the labor market. I think one, it failed to capture the migrant worker who lose their job and then they just go back to their home in rural area. And then they dropped out from the employment survey. They are not counted as unemployed anymore.

The second thing is that I think it failed to capture the under employment in many of the business, especially in many of the state-owned enterprises, you saw that people are still employed. They still have their job, but they are not working. So that’s underemployment. That’s not being captured in the 5.9 percent unemployment rate.

So I think in fact, the real pressure in the labor market is much worse than this official number are showing. And it will continue to be under pressure when you think about the export sector. Export sector are facing the pressure from weakening global demand. When you think about the export sector, they are hiring like 60 million people.

I think the one of the silver lining is that a lot of the job loss actually is temporary. It’s temporary because this is coronavirus shock, shops, restaurant, factory, they locked down. And the global recession in our model forecasts will last just for two quarter.

So the jobs will come back.  

And then there are also questions about damages done by the coronavirus to global demand, U.S.-China tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. For that, I talked to Martin Raser, Country Director for China at the World Bank.

Martin Raser: I think there’s not much in the short run that China can do about the state of global demand. That depends much more on the actions that other countries take to achieve their containment, and to be able to reopen their economies.

If that happens in the second half of the year, then I think China can look forward to recovery of external demand, which will help its own recovery. But because that’s uncertain, I think China can’t wait for that and needs to do more stimulus at home. That’s what I, or support to the recovery at home.

That’s what I talked about earlier, when I spoke about green investment, when I spoke about more social transfers, particularly to migrant workers to unemployed that you know, are likely to use additional money for consumption because they don’t have a lot of savings. So, that’s on the economic side.

I think on the broader question of how to deal with a hostile environment, I think the answer is more opening-up. The answer is more transparency. You know, invite the world to see that you’ve done nothing wrong. Show them, you know that you’re open for business, you’re open for business on transparent and equal terms that, you know, you care about the rule of law, that you care about foreign investment.

And I think we’ve just seen over the past year a number of initiatives to make it easier for foreign investors to come in that financial sector in a number of other areas. I think that’s the right way to go. You want the impression of the world to be a China that in the face of criticism isn’t defensive and doesn’t close down, but says okay, let’s talk about it.

Sometimes you have good points to make. Sometimes we will disagree with you but at the end of the day, we are interested in, you know, being a business partner and opening our economy in continuing to benefit from the opportunities that we have by trading with each other, by investing.


    ថ្ងៃទី ២២ ខែ​ឧសភា មហាសនិ្នបាត​​ប្រចាំ​ឆ្នាំ​នៃ​សភា​តំណាង​ប្រជាជន​ទូទាំង​ប្រទេស​ចិន​បាន​ប្រារព្ធ​ធ្វើ​នៅ​ក្រុង​ប៉េកាំង ។ អ្នក​ដឹក​នាំ​បក្ស​និង​រដ្ឋ​ មាន​លោក ស៊ី ជីនភីង ប្រធាន​រដ្ឋ​ចិន​ជា​ដើម​មាន​វត្ត​មាន​ក្នុ​ងមហា​សន្និបាត​ ។ តំណាង​ប្រជាជន​ទូទាំង​ប្រទេ​សចិន​ចំនួន ២៨៩៧​រូប​​បាន​ចូល​រួម​ពិធី​បើក​ ដែល​​សមស្រប​នឹង​ការ​កំណត់​ខាង​ច្បាប់ ។

新华社照片,北京,2020年5月22日 十三届全国人大三次会议在京开幕 5月22日,第十三届全国人民代表大会第三次会议在北京人民大会堂开幕。 新华社记者 姚大伟 摄

  ដោយ​រង​ផល​ប៉ះពាល់​ពី​ជំងឺ​កូវីដ​១៩ ដូច្នេះនេះ​គឺ​ជា​លើក​ទី​មួយ​ហើយ​ ដែល​មហាសន្និបាត​ប្រចាំ​ឆ្នាំ​នៃ​ស្ថាប័ន​អំណាច​កំពូល​នៃ​ប្រទេស​ចិន​បាន​ពន្យារ​ពេល​បើកធ្វើ​នៅ​​ខែ​ឧសភាព ក្នុង​រយៈ​ពេល​២២​ឆ្នាំ​កន្លង​មក​ ។ ក្នុង​ពិធីបើក​នៅ​ថ្ងៃ​ដដែល មុន​ដំបូង អង្គ​ប្រជុំ​គ្រប់​រូប​បាន​ ឈរ​ស្មឹងស្មាធ​ ដើម្បី​រំលែក​ទុក្ខ​វីរជនដែល​បាន​ពលី​ជីវិត​ក្នុ​ងការ​ប្រយុទ្ធ​ប្រឆាំងនឹង​ជំងឺ​កូវីដ​១៩ និង​អ្នក​ស្លាប់​បាត់​បង់​ជីវិត​ដោយសារ​ជំងឺ​នេះ ។

    លោក លីខឺឈាង នាយក​រដ្ឋមន្ត្រី​ចិន​បាន​រាយការណ៍​ការងារ​រដ្ឋាភិបាល​ក្នុ​ងមួយ​ឆ្នាំ​កន្លង​ទៅ​​ជូន​មហា​សន្និបាត​ និង​​លើក​ឡើង​សេចកី្ត​ស្នើ​ចំពោះ​ការងារ​ឆ្នាំ​នេះ ព្រម​ទាំងលើក​​ជូន​ឱ្យ​មហាសន្និបាត​ពិនិត្យ​ពិភាក្សា ។ ក្នុង​នាម​ជា​តួ​អង្គ​សេដ្ឋកិច្ច​ធំ​ទី​ពីរ​នៅ​លើ​ពិភពលោក តើ​ប្រទេស​ចិន​បាន​​ទប់​ទល់​នឹង​ផល​ប៉ះពាល់​ដែល​បណ្តាល​មក​ពី​ជំងឺ​កូវីដ​១៩​យ៉ាង​ម៉េច ដើម្បី​សម្រេច​គោល​ដៅកំណត់​ជា​ស្រេច​ ក៏ដូច​ជា​ជំរុញ​កំណែ​ទំរង់​និង​បើក​ទូលាយ​ ប្រការ​ទាំង​នេះ​ត្រូវ​​មជ្ឈដ្ឋាន​ក្រៅ​ចាប់​អារម្មណ៍យ៉ាង​ខ្លាំង ។

    ក្រៅ​ពី​នេះ មហាសន្និបាត​នៅ​មាន​របៀបវារៈពីរ​ដែល​ពាក់​ព័ន្ធ​នឹងការងារ​តាក់តែង​ច្បាប់ គឺ​ពិនិត្យ​ពិភាគ្សា​សេចក្តី​ព្រាង​ច្បាប់ក្រម​​រដ្ឋប្បវេណី​ដំបូង​របស់​ប្រទេស​ចិន ព្រម​និង​សេចកី្ត​ព្រាង​ច្បាប់​ស្តីពី​ការ​បង្កើត​របបច្បាប់​​និង​យន្តការ​អនុវត្ត​​ឱ្យ​បាន​ពេញ​លេញ​សម្រាប់​គាំពារ​សន្តិសុខ​​នៃ​តំបន់​រដ្ឋបាល​ពិសេស​ហុងកុង ៕































NICE TV 独家专访马来西亚驻柬埔寨大使

日前,马来西亚驻柬埔寨大使应约就马来西亚和柬埔寨的友谊与合作关系接受NICE TV独家专访。

Eldeen Husaini Mohd Hashim大使是有史以来任命最年轻的马来西亚驻柬埔寨大使,他在接受NICE TV专访时强调,在其外交使命期间定下三大目标,包括:进一步增进马来西亚和柬埔寨的友谊与合作关系、促进马柬两国的双边贸易额,以及促进马来西亚成为柬埔寨主要投资来源国。



Eldeen Husaini Mohd Hashim大使:柬埔寨对我们来说并不陌生,因为我们都是亚洲国家的一部分。之前我并未没有来过柬埔寨,当我得知将要来到马来西亚驻柬埔寨大使馆工作的消息时,我非常兴奋。我学习了很多有关柬埔寨历史的知识。当我到达柬埔寨时,感觉柬埔寨有和马来西亚很多相似之处。食物一样,天气一样,人也一样,只有语言是不同的。我马上就有了家的感觉,马来西亚和柬埔寨在更广泛的视角上没有太大的区别,但就文化、自然和友谊而言,我认为它们都是一样的。



Eldeen Husaini Mohd Hashim大使:我需要强调的是,马来西亚是来柬埔寨投资最多的亚洲国家之一。从1991年到2006年,我们是第一批来到柬埔寨投资的国家。我们带着数百家企业来到这里,在一无所有的情况下进行投资。我们来到这里,把柬埔寨视为我们的合作伙伴,我们想在这里做生意,我们做到了。从1991年到2006年,我们都在这里。



Eldeen Husaini Mohd Hashim大使:我想强调一下,我会见了柬埔寨所有的部长。我在一年内会见了他们中的34位部长,只是为了确保他们感觉到马来西亚的存在,我们想向所有的部长们提到,我们在柬埔寨是要争取第一的。我们做研究、会议、矩阵,并与其他大使会面,看看我们还可以发挥哪些其他潜力。

在柬埔寨领先的移动电信公司Smart Axiata做得很好,它在柬埔寨得到蓬勃发展。我们要感谢柬埔寨政府给了Smart Axiata公司一个在这里变得强大的机会。所以,电讯业是我们认为应该加强的主要投资之一。


Eldeen Husaini Mohd Hashim大使:我非常感慨,首先,我是有史以来任命的最年轻的马来西亚大使。这对我来说是一项最大的成就。第二,在一年之内,我几乎见过你们所有的部长,有30多位部长。第三,在我到达柬埔寨后的三个月内,让我们尊敬的马哈蒂尔总理正式访问柬埔寨。25年来,这是他正式访问柬埔寨。


更多精彩内容,敬请关注NICE TV 以及NICE TV 脸书。






今天下午NICE TV 中文将直播中国全国政协十三届三次会议首场“委员通道”及开幕会

北京时间21日15:00(金边时间14:00),中国全国政协十三届三次会议第一场“委员通道”采访活动举行,邀请部分全国政协委员通过网络视频方式接受媒体采访。随后将举行全国政协十三届三次会议开幕会。NICE TV中文将对“委员通道”以及开幕会盛况进行网络视频直播,敬请期待!


由Novasilk新丝绸文化传媒公司投资制作的《走出国门的女人》系列纪录片,因全球新冠病毒蔓延、直线飙升的阳性指标,不得不暂停拍摄。《走出国门的女人》(英文:From Afar) 是由美国新泽西新思路Novasilk文化传媒公司 (Novasilk Multicultural Development) 制作的系列纪录片,戏说走出国门的华裔女性移民在不同领域的人生故事,第一季一共为10集,聚焦美国东岸纽约、新泽西、费城的华裔女性。

本片所有的人物故事由美国资深记者、作家天歌历时20年时间,对多位具有代表性的女性进行走访和资料收集,在全美主要华文媒体连载刊登,因走出国门、跨越文化、在美少数族裔等特殊题材,备受关注。片方透露,纪录片力邀泰国金象米王的之女、慈善家林洁辉;满清最后一代格格、艺术家爱新觉罗恒懿;曾翻译老舍《四世同堂》的华裔女作家、图书馆馆长姜宇;留美北大化学研究员、投铊毒杀丈夫的李天乐;脱下白大褂的天使保姆 ……